INDONESIA
1. 2004 Elections Overview |
| On 5th April this year, Indonesia will hold elections throughout the country for its national House of Representatives (DPR), for Provincial Houses of Representatives (DPRD), and for the new Regional Representative Council (DPD). These elections will be held in about 2000 electoral districts involving up to 475,000 candidates representing 24 political parties (See list below). It is estimated that about 143 million voters will take part requiring 500,000 voting stations manned by 3.5 million staff and protected by one million security officers. About 900 million ballot papers will need to be printed, distributed and retrieved. | |
| On 5th July, Presidential elections will take place. For the first time, Indonesians will directly elect a Presidential/Vice-Presidential ticket. Complex criteria will determine whether a ticket has won this election. If there is no clear winner, a second round run-off between the two leading tickets will be held on September 20. (For the latest on possible presidential candidates see the Update below). | |
| New Election Systems | Complicating matters for voters in these elections year is that they must become familiar with not one, but three new election systems: an Open List Proportional Representation system for the DPR and DPRDs; a Single Non Transferable Vote system for the DPD; and a Two Round Majoritorian system for the Presidency. For the first time in DPR and DPRD elections, voters may vote for a candidate as well as a party as in the past. The voter must vote for a party and may vote for a candidate as well. However, when they cast a vote in the DPD election, they must vote only for a single candidate. All of this requires an immense voter education campaign. | |
| If Indonesia manages to conduct these elections successfully, and overall peacefully, it will be a very notable achievement. Apart from the complexities mentioned above, there will be many other difficulties, including outbreaks of violence among contesting parties amid claims and counter claims of fraud and intimidation and perhaps terrorist attacks from radical Islamists and others in organisations like Jemaah Islamiah (JI) aimed at undermining and destabilising the whole liberal democratic process. | |
| Since the last election in 1999, there have been some very significant changes and advances in Indonesian politics. The military has withdrawn from parliament and has adopted a doctrine in principle eschewing its dwi fungsi (dual function) role involving it in socio-political matters. There have been constitutional amendments passed through a largely corrupt parliament reforming political and governing processes by introducing such measures as direct presidential elections and regional autonomy – developments deemed impossible by some observers five years ago. On top of that, political parties have undergone all sorts of changes and a plethora of newspapers and other media outlets as well as hundreds of pro-democracy NGOs and a number of trade unions have appeared across the land. | |
| Technology | A recent issue of The Jakarta Post said that
"during the past five years, technology has made it possible for information to be more widespread, practically reaching every corner of Indonesia, either through the print media, electronic media, Internet or personal messages. A simple household in a remote location in North Sumatra, for example, may have little access to clean water, yet find it easy to follow political developments throughout the country by means of television and radio broadcasts. If this phenomenon is coupled with the dynamic growth of the media…then it can be said that tens of millions of Indonesian voters are by now quite accustomed to being presented with a range of political views." | |
| While Indonesians are undoubtedly still disillusioned with many of their political leaders and the continuing corruption of many corporations and institutions, governmental, judicial and otherwise, they are also enjoying far greater political and intellectual freedoms and the very gradual but undoubted emergence of a more civil and civic society. Soeharto stacked the nation's political, legal and military institutions with his own cronies. When he was overthrown in May 1998, we expected it would take three or four elections, that is, ten to fifteen years, for the nation to rid itself of that baggage and institute significant, lasting liberal democratic reforms. It is doing far better than we ever anticipated, partly because many of the supposedly authoritarian Soehartoists have changed their spots. So long as the Indonesian polity remains tolerant and pluralistic, the economy remains open to the world and voters do not elect a bunch of populist, xenophobic and protectionist nationalists, Indonesia will slowly grow and prosper as foreigners bring capital and technology to its shores despite its myriad problems. | |
| In view of all this, we have been disappointed to read the pessimistic comments of some foreign correspondents and international organisations saying, in effect, that nothing much has changed since 1999 and that the people have become disillusioned with Megawati and the democratic process. Of course, many people are disillusioned, for their expectations were too high. However, Indonesia is not going back to the past and things will gradually work themselves out. Its is just unfortunate that some 'experts' could not have taken a more balanced and longer term view. | |
| 2. The Participating Parties |
| Below is a list of the 24 political parties participating in the elections with their respective chairpersons. (A comment on them follows). | |
|
| 1. | Democratic Party | Budi Santoso |
| 2. | Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) | Hidayat Nur Wahid |
| 3. | Concern for the Nation Functional Party (PKPB) | Raden Hartono |
| 4. | Indonesia Justice and Unity Party (PKP) | Edy Sudrajat |
| 5. | Reform Star Party (PBR) | KH Zainuddin MZ |
| 6. | Freedom Bull National Party (PNKB) | Eros Djarot |
| 7. | Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) | Megawati Soekarnoputri |
| 8. | Golkar Party | Akbar Tandjung |
| 9. | United Development Party (PPP) | Hamzah Haz |
| 10. | National Awakening Party (PKB) | Alwi Shihab |
| 11. | National Mandate Party (PAN) | Amien Rais |
| 12. | Crescent Star Party (PBB) | Yusril Ihza Mahendra |
| 13. | New Indonesia Alliance Party (PIB) | Sjahrir |
| 14. | Marhaenisme Indonesia National Party (PNI) | Sukmawati Soekarnoputri |
| 15. | United Democratic Nationhood Party (PDK) | Ryaas Rasyid |
| 16. | Indonesia Unity Party (PSI) | Rahardjo Tjakraningrat |
| 17. | Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) | Ruyandi Mustika Hutasoit |
| 18. | Pancasila Patriot Party | Yapto Sulistio Soerjosoemarno |
| 19. | Freedom Party | Adi Sasono |
| 20. | Regional United Party (PPD) | Oesman Sapta Odang |
| 21. | Socialist Democratic Labor Party (PBSD) | Mochtar Pakpahan |
| 22. | Pioneer Party | Rachmawati Soekarnoputri |
| 23. | Indonesian Nahdlatul Community Party (PPNUI) | Sukron Makmun |
| 24. | Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (Partai PDI) | Dimmy Haryanto |
| |
| Comment | In the 1999 elections, Megawati's PDI-P scored 33.8% of the vote, Golkar 22.5%, PKB 12.6%, the PPP 10.7%, PAN 7.1%, the PBB 1.9% and the Justice Party (PK), which is now known as the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), 1.4%. | |
| Generally speaking, the secular nationalist parties like PDI-P, Golkar and some smaller ones like PKP, PNI and PNBK collectively get about 59-62% of the vote while all the Muslim parties, including the Hamzah Haz led PPP, Abdurrahman Wahid's PKB, Amien Rais' PAN, the PBB, PKS and a number of even smaller ones (this year including PPNUI and PBR) poll about 38-41%. The radical Muslim or Islamist vote usually counts for about 12% of the total vote, it being found in the PBB, PKS, a lot of PAN and parts of PPP. | |
| Most observers expect a similar result this year, although it is thought that PDI-P will not poll as well as in 1999 because of internal difficulties and disillusionment with some of Megawati's policies and her government's failure to tackle reform more vigorously. It is thought that PDI-P could lose votes to Golkar and to a number of small parties that have split off from PDI-P, namely the Partai Pelopor is led by Megawati's sister Rachmawati, the PNI led by other sister Sukmawati, the PNBK and the Partai PDI. | |
| The Justice Party | On the Muslim side, the most interesting development is the growth of the PKS or the Justice Party as it is known. This is a radical Muslim party led by people who are seen to be highly respectable members of the community. They are seen to be morally upright, clean living and fundamentalist and, like the Mormons, they look after each other. In a highly corrupt society and polity striving to reform itself, this is very appealing to some people. Consequently, the party has been slowly growing in strength and could take votes away from other Muslim parties, especially PPP and PAN. Secular nationalists are concerned about the potential of the Justice Party because while it looks respectable and publicly eschews violence, it has in the recent past supported the adoption of the Jakarta Charter1 and is seen to be more than sympathetic to Jemaah Islamiah and other al-Qa'ida linked Islamist terrorist organisations and guerrilla movements. Like Jemaah Islamiah, which is part of an Islamist revolutionary guerrilla movement with clandestine political and military/terrorist wings, the PKS – or at least serious parts of it - would strive to bring a Taliban-style government to Indonesia. | 1 The Jakarta Charter is a proposed amendment to the Indonesian Constitution that would mean, in effect, the institution of Shariah law. |
| Other points of interest among the 24 parties: | |
| There are two trade union-linked parties, namely the PBSD of Mochtar Pakpahan and the PSI. | |
| The Democratic Party is regarded as the party of former general and current Co-ordinating Minister for Politics and Security, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono2 and he is its presidential candidate. He is popular and could end up as part of a coalition with Megawati. | 2 Yudhoyono is now President of Indonesia. |
| There is only one Christian party, the PDS. | |
| The PKPB, led by former general Raden Hartono, has nominated his 'close friend, Soeharto's daughter Siti 'Tutut' Hardiyanti Rukmana, for president. | |
| 3. Update on Presidential Hopefuls |
| Since our "Early Look at the 2004 Presidential Hopefuls" in APR55 on the 14th November, a number of interesting matters have occurred: | |
| The Chairman of Golkar, Akbar Tandjung, had his conviction for fraud overturned in the supreme court and is now free to contest the presidential election if nominated by Golkar. He is being challenged by some hard-running and in some cases, well financed, party colleagues among them former general Wiranto, businessman Aburizal Bakrie,3 the current Co-ordinating Minister for People's Welfare, Jusuf Kalla,4 media mogul Suryo Paloh and former general and Koppassus and Kostrad commander, Prabowo Subianto, who is a son-in-law of former president Soeharto and is thought to be running primarily to regain some respectability and to spike his old rival Wiranto. While most people think Akbar will win, his now tarnished image and background wheeler dealing could make it more difficult than he would like. Akbar recently dropped a bombshell of sorts when he said he would be happy to serve as vice-president under Megawati and indicated that he thought the PDI-P would get more votes than Golkar. (The Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, whom we mentioned the APR55, has withdrawn his nomination due to a lack of support.) | 3 Now Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for the Economy - see profile.
4 Now Vice President. |
| In mid February, Muhammadiyah, one of the largest Muslim organisations in the country with about 30 million adherents, officially declared its support for Amien Rais for president. Rais is the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and its presidential candidate. This decision, announced by Muhammadiyah chairman Ahmad Syafii Maarif, has brought widespread criticism and has caused a good deal of strife within Muhammadiyah itself. The Deputy Secretary of Muhammadiyah, Hajriyanto Y. Thohari, who is a Golkar member of the DPR, called it undemocratic, premature because the DPR elections had not yet been held, and said it would damage Muhammadiyah's reputation for neutrality. | |
| The National Awakening Party (PKB), announced that its presidential candidate would be former president Abdurrahman Wahid. This would appear to eliminate the possibility of PKB nominating former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as we speculated in APR55. Susilo is the presidential candidate of his small Democratic Party. To run for president a candidate must have the support of a party or group of parties with at least 5 percent of the vote or three per cent of the seats in the DPR. Susilo might still be able to obtain that elsewhere, but his only chance with PKB now rests it seems with the unlikely event of an alarming drop in the PKB's vote in the DPR or perhaps a significant decline in Wahid's health. | |
| In an intriguing development in December, the Chairman of the PKPB, retired general Raden Hartono, said he had asked Soeharto's eldest daughter, Siti 'Tutut' Hardiyanti Rukmana, to be the PKPB's presidential candidate. Hartono was once minister for information under Soeharto and is spoken of as one of Tutut's "special friends". She is politically ambitious having been, among other things, Golkar chairperson from 1993 to 1998. When Soeharto appointed her Minister for Social Welfare in 1998 as part of his grooming her to take over the presidency, protests broke out across the country, helping along the programme to have him removed from office (principally for being a leading party in promoting radical Muslims into positions of great influence in the government and the military). Some people say that Soeharto and the family oppose Tutut accepting this nomination and are embarrassed by it because, they say, it is just Hartono putting public pressure on his "special friend". Hartono himself is said to be very ambitious, to have plenty of money and some TNI and Muslim support. During the latter, disastrous Soeharto years, he was seen to be a "green" general close to radical Muslims being promoted by Soeharto, Habibie and 'Tutut'. He himself is not considered to be a radical Muslim, but rather a somewhat unattractive opportunist and chameleon. Of course, before 'Tutut' could actually contest the presidential election, the PKPB and any allied parties must attain the electoral qualifications mentioned above. | |
| One of the fascinating aspects of these elections is the participation of the three Sukarnoputri sisters, Megawati, Rachmawati and Sukmawati all of them leading rival parties – see the list above. Some commentators have said that perhaps the most significant thing about this – at this stage - is the potential for Megawati's two sisters to damage her with unhelpful and embarrassing family and personal revelations. If that is to be the case, it hasn't happened yet. | |
| Perhaps the most talked about subject is who Megawati will choose as her vice presidential running mate. There has been some speculation that she might offer the post to either the Golkar candidate after the Golkar convention elects him, thereby co-opting Golkar by, in effect, going into coalition with it, or to one of the failed Golkar candidates thereby splitting Golkar. If it is the candidate, that probably means Akbar Tandjung, the Golkar chairman, who at the moment is favoured to win the nomination. As mentioned earlier, he has indicated he might accept such an offer. However, others, including Wiranto, Aburizal Bakrie, Jusuf Kalla and Suryo Paloh remain in the race and as we know a week is a long time in politics (Prabowo seems to be beyond the pale). But if she goes down this path, it will mean two secular nationalists running together which might upset some sections of the Muslim community and she is keen not to alienate the Muslims. If she, therefore, goes for a Muslim, it could be again the current vice president Hamzah Haz who is also chairman of Muslim based PPP and a member of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) which is regarded as the largest Muslim organisation in the country with about 40 million adherents. However, he is seriously distrusted by secular nationalists and most moderate Muslims because he is close to the Islamists if not one himself, openly defending Jemaah Islamiah and visiting Abu Bakar Bashir in jail. She might, therefore, turn to a respected moderate Muslim leader, perhaps the NU chairman, Hasyim Muzadi, or the Muhammadiyah chairman, Ahmad Syafii Maarif or the noted Islamic scholar, Nurcholish Majid, who last year expressed an interest in running for the presidency. It might be said that Syafii Maarif could hardly accept to run with Megawati having just officially encouraged Muhammadiyah members to support the PAN candidate, Amien Rais, for president. However, there is some speculation that if PAN fails to get 7% of the vote in the 5th April PDR election – which might be difficult given the growth of the Justice Party – Rais could be forced to step down as party chairman and its presidential candidate in favour of Maarif who would then do a deal with Megawati. Whatever happens, there will be a great deal of speculation and backroom horse trading between the various candidates and their minders and as we know from 1999, a cunning dealer can produce surprising cards. | |
